The Notebook Early Show

Not all Top 3, Top 6, Top Half markets created equally. Let's start to think about how strength is distributed across a division.

Quinnbet 9/1 but a general 7/1, 13/2 elsewhere as Salford go solid favourites for League Two. Fleetwood Captain Elliot Bonds the latest to head to The Ammies, that’s 35+ games experience each season over the last four joining the Salford midfield. They aren’t hanging about.

Salford 12/1 back at the end of June, there’s not a double figure price available for them or Bristol Rovers (9/1) now as both cement their position at the top of the market.

Rovers picked up a good report card in the 2-1 defeat to Leicester in midweek during which they played 4x30 minute sessions, that followed good wins at Weston Super Mare and Salisbury, the Rovers front line pleasing Steve Evans.

Mees Rijks having a good preseason, the Dutchman joined in the January transfer window from Norwegian side Vålerenga, 1 goal in 13 to finish the season but we can expect better this time around.

Plenty of 12/1 about for York but they’re as short as 9/1 in a few places as their transfer business continues to make some noise.

It’s a transfer strategy targeted at bringing experience in, Jack Hunt has played 300 games of Championship football plus a whole load at League One over the last half decade. Hills have York 3rd Favs, Victor 2nd.

A few other markets have been up and running since we last checked in.

Note. Prices in Top 3, Top 7, Top Half and Promotion markets aren’t simply derivatives of a team’s outright price, models will still factor in the relative strength distribution into their simulations.

Think of it this way, a division with three sides miles better than anyone else a 50/1 outsider for the title obviously a more competitive proposition in a Top 6 market and the models that agree with all that sentiment will find them as such.

The key variable for us to consider is, what do we think of the strength distribution of the division? Top heavy? Average beyond the Top 6? Competitive all the way down?

Some models set their stall out and that’s good if you’ve got a contrarian view.

Port Vale a good example here. Every book is 10/1 or 11/1 in the outrights, BetVictor and Skybet are both 10/1. However, they are as short as 4/5 (BV) and as long as 11/8 (SkyBet) in the Top 7 market.

Sky think the division is more competitive in the top half and Vale have a harder job of making the top 7 than BV do. BV say it’s not that competitive beyond the top 7 and Vale look a shoe in. Both layers have them 4th favourites for the title but disagree on the quality of the division in behind.

Nice story right? Long story short, don’t sleep on these markets straight away. BV are more correct in this example, 11/8 is the bet.

Elsewher, not much 20/1 left Oldham after the 25s went ages ago, they saw some business at 1/4 for a Top Half finish, now 1/5.

In more BetVictor news, they are first up with a Relegation market and saw some action straight away.

The 7/4 Newport was first to go, now 11/8 while Rotherham hold the precarious position of 4th favourites for the title in some places and now 4th favourites for relegation, 5/1 from 7/1 opening show.

The Millers looking competitive in preseason against Parkgate (who?), Emley Town (who?) and are currently 1-0 down to Matlock (heard of them) as I type, Nombe not in the squad and expected to be on the move pretty soon.

As you were in League One, Leicester still 11/4 and all but BetVictor (getting some good SEO from the blog this week) happy to lay Sheffield Wednesday at 7/1.

Victor opened 8/1 The Owls in May, now 5/1, more trumpets being silenced in BV Towers hopefully.

Leicester bring in Conor Chaplin from Ipswich who scored 26 in 45 in their League One promotion season, he’ll go off short enough.

Leicester, Wednesday and Luton making up a strong top 3 if we believe the market, a nice reference spot for the bit you skipped reading in our League Two tales above, 6 sides odds on for a Top 7 finish in League Two, just 3 sides odds on for a Top 6 spot in League One.

The distribution of strength heavily weighted towards the top of the division here, the top 3 take up 52% of the book, although, as we discussed plenty on the Antepost pods, it should be easy enough to take an alternate view in League One.

Would you take 11/10 the field outside the top 3 in League One? Absolutely you would in a 100% book

Still a huge difference in Stockport expectations, Bet365 16/1, Hills 10/1 for the title, back to that distribution of strength though, both firms 13/8 for a Top 6 finish.

The relegation market was the one we wanted this week after talking about the dangers Barnsley might face this season.

Now then, BetVictor were already top price on The Tykes winning the league, by some way (50/1), so them going up first and putting them in at 11/4, 5th favourites for relegation is certainly a view.

It’s a view I agree with so all eyes on the rest going up. BV are 9/4 for a top half finish, I wonder, 7/1 relegation would be nice. Blackpool another on the shortlist, open 8/1.

Oxford 12/1 into 5/1 for relegation as the extent of their issues is still up for debate, they’re out to 16/1 for a title as well. Nik Prelec gone, Frankie Kent has done his cruciate in preseason and they have this transfer embargo in place, 2/1 a top 6 finish.

Is there enough in the team already though? They haven’t come down as a complete basket case have they? Sheffield Wednesday still have a bit to find on Oxford even if the latter are staying still. I wonder…

Mansfield bring in Michael Smith from Preston to join David McGoldrick and Rhys Oates. BOSH, 40/1 into 33/1. Up the Mighty Stags.

West Ham hardened at that 9/4, a fair bit of 2/1 about as well. If you’re waiting for some 5/2 to pop up you’ve probably missed it. Word is Bowen sticking is around.

Oh dear, Coral seen enough, Blues 11/1 out to 14/1 at the news James Beadle is coming back. Bet365 and Ladbrokes, 12/1 and 11/1 into 9/1 respectively for Middlesbrough. Strelec got the opener in the 1-1 draw with Celtic today.

Three in the notebook shortlist for relegation all been given a chance now BV have gone up. Watford 9/2, Preston 7/2 and Bristol City 10/1. The Robins linked with Laurent Tolaj this week which is good, they also bought in Brad Collins which isn’t that good.

Top 8 and Top 6 prices both gone up as the market adjusts to the fact the playoffs will include the 8th placed team this season.

Jimmy-Jay Morgan and Aune Heggebø both on target as Albion beat Bromley 4-1 on Friday night. Looks like BV opened up 40/1 Sheffield Utd relegation which wasn’t right, 10/1 now, I’d still be interested in the other side of The Blades expectations, I should probably back that 18/1 at Betway so will do tomorrow.

Wrexham 33/1 for relegation took up most of my thoughts on today’s dog walk, proper division this year.

World Cup done and dusted this weekend so predict LOTS of activity in The Championship coming our way.

Today’s Betting Thought of the Day. If I had to pop teams in a box marked Good, Average, Worse than Average, Terrible - how many teams would be in each box? That’s your starter for 10 when thinking of the how deep the strength is across each division.